I need your feedback!

I think we all agree that when one is very predictable, that it is less exciting. But, do you think an MMA event can be too unpredictable?

As you all know, on average a user here on MMA Predictions will probably correctly predict a little over 50% of the fights on a given card (see the all time site stats).

Let’s say there’s a fight card where on average, it’s really unpredictable and folks only get 15% of the card correct. Is that okay? Is that more exciting, and preferable?

Or, should do we want MMA fight cards to be average in terms of predictability, neither too easy or too hard to predict?

Please let me know what you think!

IMO I don’t think it necessarily comes down to “predictable” vs “unpredictable” per sey. When I see a fight card, I could have pretty much had the whole card figured out (and be totally wrong!), but if those fights were entertaining (3 round slugfest with no man yeilding to the punishment, or a brilliant offensive grappling match with many good Sub attempts, or heck, just a good old first round knockout) then I would say that I enjoyed the card, despite the fact that I (or many users) got it all wrong. If that shoe was on the other foot but those fights were boring displays of timidness, Lay n Pray decisions, or god forbid, another Kalib Starnes fight, I wouldn’t care how well I predicted that event.

I think one of the most brilliant things about MMA is that anyone can beat anyone, and anyone can lose at any time. It is just the sanguine nature of our sport. That side of MMA is what is attracting many fans from other genres (boxing, pro wrestling, etc.) and it should be nurtured. I think matchmakers all over the sport should focus on putting together good, entertaining, and intriging matches. I don’t think their first priority should be to try to make a fight predictable or unpredictable to a few thousand “armchair cornermen” (I just made that up, I am so proud of myself). Entertainment is the key. Matchmakers and promoters need to focus on fighters that come game to fight, and are willing to give it their all. I think if they continue to discern between the “contenders” and the “pretenders” I think all of us as fans will continue to enjoy the sport, and more fans will be drawn to the wonderful world of MMA.

I asked Zach Arnold of FightOpinion.com what he thought about this and here’s what he said:

In a shoot environment like MMA, you have to always find a balance between unpredictability and protecting top stars. The hardcore fans may love a good upset, but your average fan is very fickle about who they support. Those same fickle fans like winners, and creating a perception of a fighter being a ‘winner’ is critical to making money.

It’s not really the job of a fight promoter to care about issues relating to purity and predictability. You’d feel the same way if you were in charge of a billion-dollar operation and your financial security was constantly on the line.

As a fan, I’m willing to accept some predictable fights on a top of a card if the undercard has some variety and competitiveness to it. In other words, I’m not heartbroken about top stars being ‘protected’ if it means eventually leading to a big money match down the road. It’s all about pacing when it comes to booking fights and making sure not to give the fans too much parity or too much of a good thing. Generally, I’m a patient fan when it comes to how promoters book fights. I also generally get a kick out of seeing fights normally set for undercards that are evenly competitive (in the case of the recent UFN with Florian/Lauzon and Alves/Karo, those are traditionally undercard fights on a big UFC show that got big billing on Spike TV and I enjoyed the hell out of them).

A very interesting question and I would have to say that it sort of bothers me if I can completely predict all the fights with confidence but it won’t take away from my enjoyment of the fights themselves or the event as a whole if the fights are really good. For example, I predicted that Alves would beat Karo at UFN and it didn’t make that fight seem or be less interesting. Unpredictability is great in my book. If I do some predictions with full confidence and I end up being proved wrong, I like that feeling. I do understand that MMA is a business and big stars need to be molded and protected (it happens all the time in boxing as well) so I understand that someone will get a fight with a person who is not even close to the big star. That is just part of the package. The great thing about MMA is that everyone has a puncher’s (or a jiu jitsuer’s) chance of getting an upset and that is what attracts me to the sport.

Okay so what I am hearing is that

• no one thinks about whether an event is too unpredictable. That is, that thought never enters the equation.
• people do care if fights are too predictable

Correct?